[Dan]

• EURUSD made a marginal new low on Friday and is now at risk of posting triple momentum divergence on the daily chart should the relative stabilisation continue and the market starts to bounce in the very short term.
• Such a development (completion of triple divergence) would strongly indicate that the moves down have run out of steam and the pair is likely to bounce over the coming days.
• Additionally the marginal new low at the end of last week was 53 pips lower than the low on Feb 5th. This is very similar to the price action seen at the low on March 4th 2009 which was 56 pips lower than the previous interim low.
• EURUSD also formed momentum divergence in March 2009. The March 4th low was not traded again.
• The near term resistance level still in focus is 1.3851 and a rally through there would be a bullish development that would still open the way for a test of the channel top at 1.4135.