[BillPaay]

Yesterday, much of the day's gains were given up as we headed into the close as the dollar managed a slight recovery. Crude finished up only 21 cents, but managed to put in new highs yesterday which is encouraging. Given the amount of oil-related news we saw yesterday and this morning, market reaction has been rather muted. As expected, the OPEC meeting last night left quotas unchanged with more of the usual rhetoric around improving compliance was expressed. Next OPEC meeting is slated for December 22. API numbers were on the slightly bullish side as they reported larger-than-expected draws in crude but was offset by the larger-than-expected build in distillates. Crude gained in after-hours trading but is now printing just under unchanged from last night's close. On the monthly report front, yesterday's EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report lowered their demand forecast lower for 2009 by 70,000bpd and by 30,000 bpd for 2010. In contrast, the IEA with their monthly report out this morning revised their world oil consumption upwards by 0.5mmbpd for this year and next. There has been little market reaction to these reports thus far. The price action this week has been unequivocally dictated by the dollar and market expects it to continue today ahead of EIA inventory numbers out at 16:00 GMT. Anything less bullish should see the market pull-back to the $69-70 level. Crude continues to lead the complex as product cracks remain under pressure.

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