[Calxy]

The early 2009 rally on USDJPY looks eerily similar to that seen in early 1999

• Then as now you had a big carry trade collapse that saw USDJPY fall sharply into its lows in January 1999 just as in January 2009

• This was followed by a sharp bounce into March 1999 and a pullback to the breakout exactly the same as we saw now.

• After that it set marginal new highs for a total bounce of 15.27%. An equivalent bounce here would target 100.40. The top of the channel off the 1999 price action is met at 100.73. The 55-week moving average comes in at 100.52.

While we still have technical indicators that suggest 102 and even 104 might be possible this chart suggests caution around this range (100.40-100.73) This is especially true given overall bearish USD view.