[DanRath]

The long term monthly chart (above left) shows the effective hold of support at 1.3682 (also see daily chart) and the monthly momentum indicator is turning up from oversold levels. The last time the momentum indicator turned from this area was in June 1999 when GBPUSD rallied for four months and also in early 1993 which saw a significant low in GBPUSD at 1.40 that was not retested for over seven years (in September 2000). The weekly chart shows a bullish weekly reversal pattern suggesting potential further gains in the medium term. In the short-term however it may also be susceptible to a period of USD strength.

GBPUSD – Daily charts

Throughout this year, GBPUSD has not managed to post a close below the 2001 low which was 1.3682. The blue line shows the daily closes. A convincing rally through 1.50 would be bullish and a test of the 200 dma at 1.62+ would be the medium-term target if this were to give way

[DanRath]

Closed below key short term support level at 0.9073 and posted a bearish continuation pattern. The rally up from the Feb low seems to have been a correction and we would not be surprised to see further short term losses possibly down to the Feb low again.

The bigger question is whether we are seeing the formation of a double top pattern. A firm weekly close below the Feb low at 0.8637 could open the way for an eventual move down to 0.7755 over the long term

[cokewiciopy]

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