Where to go next?
Is the question everyone seems to be asking. It appears that the market is looking for a clear sense of direction, either up, down, or sideways.. The month of March saw a 22% increase in the Dow and positive macro data. The EUR seemed to track the performance of US equity markets, strengthening on positive days and weakening on down days. However, recently, earnings have been for the most part better than expected, equities haven't emulated March's performance, and the EUR is holding up around 1.3230. The data doesn't seem to appear as positive as many thought it would be. For example, UK GDP came in at -1.90% q/q and -4.10% y/y - lower than expected. Korea's GDP was better than expected thanks to a stimulus package and the weak KRW, which in turn loosed financial conditions. US home sales declined, and jobless claims increased. Some expect Japanese GDP to come in less negative at -5.3% vs a previous -6.1. Expect the focus of today to be on the US economy as it compares to Europe – so the bar is high for anyone to be bullish the USD there.
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