[Calxy]

Another trade day, another beating taken by the US Dollar…..The US Dollar continued its slide from NY into the Asian session as earlier in the day the FOMC threw cold water on those who were optimistic about the US pulling out of the current recession in good shape. The FOMC minutes basically stated that the economic outlook for America was still gloomy; as well they stated that the Federal Reserve will still look to purchase US Treasuries, and thus we have the demise of the Dollar. With the Federal Reserve basically printing money as fast as the presses will allow, traders were dumping it just as fast, and the moves overnight into Asia were profound. EUR/USD cruised almost three big figures from yesterday’s Asia close to a 1.3828 high just prior to the Asian open today. For the Asian session however, the pair opened and hit lows of 1.3757 before hitting a high just under 1.3810. Against the Yen the Greenback fared no better as USD/JPY opened on its 94.98 high and dropped as low as 94.28 for the day. Even the battered British Pound got in on the action today, as GBP/USD topped out on a six month high of 1.58150 before easing late in the session. And as the Dollar dropped, Gold surged higher, topping out a $16 dollar move that began before lunch in NY, and apexed at $942.80 per ounce in Asia. It’s wise to keep an eye on Oil as well, which closed over $62 per barrel today amidst the demise of the Dollar. The news could get worse tomorrow as the US session has unemployment data, Philly Fed Manufacturing as well as Treasury Secretary Geithner speaking in front of the House Financial Services Committee.

Looking at the correlations across asset classes for May, the USD weakness has actually been less about gains in stocks and more about the rally in commodities (especially oil). The buck has moved inversely with commodities 87% of the time and with oil 96% of the time in May thus far. The dollar’s correlation with equities is a trivial -16% meanwhile. In other words, if the run-up in oil continues, expect the greenback to remain weak regardless of what stocks do. Oil inventories were also released today and showed a sharper draw than anticipated. As such, the “tightening” in the supply/demand imbalance in oil continues to confirm the move higher in crude prices. Should oil push upward from here, USD weakness will continue.