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As second quarter earnings season has moved into full swing, focus has unsurprisingly turned to the micro-stories behind individual company ‘beats’ and ‘misses’. But what is striking is that instead of slinking quietly into the background, macro themes have reemerged strongly in markets over the past couple of weeks. One indication of this is that realized correlations among single stocks has climbed significantly over the past couple of weeks both in the US and in Europe. Typically in previous years, realized correlations have declined through July as the differences in individual company results are reflected in price performance. Looking further ahead, we should see greater differentiation in performance on the basis of differential growth prospects.

So far though, investors and markets appear to have looked into individual company results with more than half an eye for what signal they convey for broader macro implications. With earnings for both financials and cyclicals being better than market expectations on balance, growth views in the equity market have also received a second wind. Cyclical and risk fx crosses such as AUD/EUR and AUD/JPY have rallied as well.

[cppene]

This has been a more ‘macro’ earnings season than most, but beyond it, as the next batch of top-tier macro data become imminent, investors are likely to re-focus on the issue of the ‘sustainability’ of the ongoing inventory-cycle led stabilization. The second half of the year is likely to prove a more complicated zone for the risk picture, and it will therefore, more than ever, pay to be closely responsive to the data as they evolve.

Historical analogies are always tricky, but in the US, where the data are the most comprehensive, the typical post-war pattern has been one of sharp improvement once the point of deepest contraction is past. But the recoveries out of the last two recessions have been different. If one considers data such as initial jobless claims, in the last two recoveries there has been a phase of fairly sharp improvement after the peak, followed by a ‘stall’ phase of several months of no improvement (and indeed some sequential deterioration) before really decisive improvement takes place.

If one assumes that the peak in initial jobless claims was in March this year, we are arguably still in the phase of initial rapid improvement. A 20% reduction from the peak, roughly commensurate with the initial sharp improvements in the last two recessions, would suggest that a 500k level is where we are heading. But beyond that, if history is any guide, improvement may be less rapid. Indeed the economists call for the unemployment rate to continue to climb throughout the rest of 2009 and 2010, and more broadly a sluggish recovery in the G3 is very much a core feature of 2010 forecast.

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