[achiever]

1- the last bounce in the USD (white line) in early June was also accompanied by a sharp move in 2yr yields (green). USD correlation with rates could be reconverging again and greater attention to be paid to rates

2- after the initial bounce, the USD traded sideways for the rest of June even though the 2yr yield started falling again through June

3- whilst the USD rally seemed more pronounced against G7, the rally in USD-EM was more modest; USD-BRL for instance consolidated eventually selling off again in July. In other words, EM held gains pretty well last time USD strengthened.

4- We could see a window of underperformance in G7 vs. EM in a firmer USD backdrop. Pairs such as EURZAR, EURTRY, GBPBRL