[cppene]

Amongst the slew of better data through June, data on the US consumer stood out as one of the key disappointments. Sentiment as measured by the UMichigan and the Conference Board surveys remained lacklustre around the mid 60’s and 50respectively. Retail sales have remained weak, with retail sales ex autos and other volatile categories continuing to decline year-on-year. Given the headwinds the consumer faces and the rise in the savings rate it is not necessarily a surprise that the consumer remains on the back foot at this stage of the recovery. While there is focus on the worry that the global recovery will not be sustainable without the US consumer, some would disagree. Economists forecast global growth at 4% next year – so back at trend – without the US consumer in the driving seat. This would be viewed as a good development towards rebalancing the global economy.