[achiever]

Key for FX today is which correlation matters most – rates higher leading to a stronger USD or equities higher leading to a weaker USD. The easy way out for most has been to buy EUR/JPY. The JPY held 92 mostly and seems near the bottom of its recent monthly ranges while the EUR at 1.4335 isn’t cheap its not yet broken the 1.4410 resistance. So many will be excited today to watch 132.50 and 133.00 in EUR/JPY for confirmation that the four days of equity selling in the US is over and all is well. But we have much news to get through before then – the ECB Trichet press conference, the US weekly jobless claims, the US Service PMI – all could scuttle the feel good mood to markets that came on back of the rally back in China shares and the move up in European Service PMIs. The main point for risk on trading mood is that central bankers appear content to be slow to the exit of accommodative policy. In the background the talk of the market is about the risk for a much better US jobs report – some talk of zero or positive as the Monster Employment Index surged higher 6%. All these drive rates, USD, equities and moods. Gold remains a big story and the break of $985 opens the $1000 resistance test. Given the data agenda expect the market to run more on news than usual.