Overnight flows were still quiet coming off of the Holiday weekend.
However, we did see an uptick in activity immediately after the Monetary Authority of Singapore concluded its biannual meeting. Key takeaways from the meeting include a plan by the Government to re-center the exchange rate policy band to the prevailing level of the S$NEER, while keeping the zero percent appreciation path. The width of the band will remain unchanged. The Government also revised its GDP growth forecast range for 2009 to -6% to -9%, which is 400bp lower than the previous forecast range announced in January. USD/SGD and other USD non-Japan Asia currencies traded lower on the back of these revelations. As a result the desired outcome of the MAS was not reached. There is a possibility that the MAS my intervene again to weaken the SGD. Coming out of China, there are rumors that Chinese IP could come in at +8.3% vs expectation of +3.6%. The People's Bank of China has also announced that it will allow increased settlement of the CNY in Hong Kong. This action could hint of China's ambition for the CNY to become a major global currency. We're also seeing better economic data coming out of Japan, particularly Japan's machine orders and massive stimulus package. From the trading perspective, we've seen significant profit taking in cross JPY and some AUD. There appears to be a squeeze in EUR as the market unsuccessfully tried to take out the 1.31 level. 100.20 is a key pivot point in USD/JPY with resistance coming at 100.70. From the options flow, there was big interest in unwinding USD/SGD USD/CNY upside. Look out for US PPI and retail sales in 15 mins.
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