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Old 10-05-2009, 10:16 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Post US Dollar Weakness continues ...

Last Friday’s price action was very poor for the Dollar and indicative of further USD weakness in the near term. The USD failed to rally despite the worse than expected payrolls and stayed well above the 1.4450 pivot level in the EUR as we continue to see EUR buying interest on dips. Over the weekend the G7 finance minister’s meeting took place in Turkey with nothing new in the statement and no comments made regarding recent USD weakness. With nothing coming out from the G7 to prevent USD weakness, we saw USD selling overnight amidst light flows. AUD rallied as Alan Mitchell, Australian Financial Review editor, said the economic data no longer justifies a 3% cash rate, and Rory Robertson, an economist at Macquarie bank, changed their call for a 25bp hike at tomorrow’s RBA meeting. The week ahead is lighter on the data front. Focus will be on industrial production data in Europe and the RBA, ECB, and BOE, meetings this week. Market expects no changes to rates but will be looking at the tone of the statements for indications regarding the timing of future hikes. Australia especially will be key to watch. The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 25bp hike at this week’s meeting.
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