[Calxy]

The day has been dominated by Quarter end and Japanese year end fixes. It is very difficult to have much of a directional view today considering the volatile nature of days such as these but the one currency that does jump out is UsdJpy. There have been rumors of large UsdYen buy fixes today which indeed turned out to be the case but unlike most “buy the rumor sell the fact” scenarios the USD remains very much in demand against the Jpy. Short Jpy long Usd was one of the more crowded trades before the Fed’s move to QE mid month but is much less so after the move to 93.60 on March 18th Fed day. There are a few levels here to look at…..99.60 was the high of the move earlier this month, 100.00 is obviously a bit of a psychological level and the 200 day moving average is at 99.29. The market has not been able to close above this 200 day since September 30 2008 and talk is that Japanese names will have demand for USD once above that. Talk of Jpy KO’s at 100,101 and 102.50.

It appears we are done for the day in NY, recommended strategies:

buy pullbacks in UsdYen at 97.80/98.20,
NzdJpy at 55.10 and
AudJpy at 67.10 for the inevitable breach of 100.
If the pullbacks do not show themselves buy a break of 100.60 to get longer Usd.