Market forecast - USD Outlook in 2010 - Forex Forum |Forex | Forex Trading

cppene · 12-01-2009, 11:42 AM

In H1-2010, USD is expected to rebound and concerns over the sustainability of the global economic recovery to emerge as inventory-driven growth in the US moderates. Market analysts expect commodity prices to retreat during this period and investors to refocus on market fundamentals; those commodities with the tightest supply will outperform. With liquidity still ample, the pull-back is unlikely to be severe, but we see industrial commodities generally topping out towards the end of 2009 or in early 2010 and moving lower by Q2- 2010.

It is a markedly different story for H2-2010, when analysts foresee renewed USD weakness, a renewed pickup in growth (particularly in the US), and still ample liquidity. Against this backdrop, investor funds are expected to flow into commodity markets, pushing the complex higher. With the notable exceptions of nickel, soybeans, sugar, and rice, all of the commodity prices are expected to be higher y/y in Q4-2010.

Overall demand growth is likely to slow as the impact of stimulus packages diminishes, but to remain positive. Supply conditions will be the key determinant of individual commodity performance.

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