Bullish Trend Reversals Favour USD into Year-End
The USD has taken out a number of important resistance levels in the aftermath of Friday’s stronger than expected November US payrolls report. Note that the MAR10 10-year US T-Note futures posted a bearish trend reversal below an ascending channel base at 118 4/32 as the market began to re-price interest rate risk. The resulting upward move in interest rates has been a major factor pushing the USD higher since Friday.
EUR/USD: Pierced key uptrend support dating back to March at 1.4903 on Friday. This bearish trend reversal opens up 1.4685 and 1.4481 on the downside. Resistance is located at 1.5155 and 1.5287.
GBP/USD: A daily close below a short-term support trendline at 1.6376 would open up key uptrend support from March at 1.6227. Resistance is located at 1.6694 and 1.6842.
USD/JPY: Posted a bullish trend reversal above a 4-month resistance trendline at 89.55. This development highlights the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud cover at 90.47, followed by resistance at 92.32. Support is located at 88.09 and 86.85.
USD/CHF: Closed above key downtrend resistance from March at 1.0117 on Friday. The resulting bullish trend reversal opens up 1.0285 and 1.0360 on the topside, with support located at 1.0071 and 0.9978.
USD/CAD: Must close above key downtrend resistance from March at 1.0593 in order to produce a bullish trend reversal. This outcome would open up 1.0732 and 1.0867 on the topside, with support located at 1.0419 and 1.0238.
AUD/USD: Important uptrend support is currently located at 0.9030. A close below this level would open up 0.8945 and 0.8858, with resistance located at 0.9311 and 0.9404.
NZD/USD: Currently testing key uptrend support at 0.7093. A daily close below this level would highlight 0.7008 and 0.6894, with resistance coming in at 0.7263 and 0.7433 now.
USD/MXN: Last week’s bearish break below a double bottom at 12.7720 highlights support at 12.4870 and 12.3260. Resistance is located at 12.7720 and 12.9410.
DXY: Pierced key downtrend resistance from March at 75.05 on Friday, with the bullish trend reversal opening up 76.58 and 77.48. Support is located at 74.39 and 73.49.
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