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CAD Viewed as a Procyclical Currency
G7 OECD Leading Indicator is a negative factor for the CAD in current environment. OECD, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, releases the Leading Indicator for early signals of economic expansion or slowdown.

• USD/CAD has a negative correlation with the G7 OECD Leading Indicator.

• Periods of growth and expansion tend to benefit the CAD and vice-versa.

• Note that USD/CAD posted a bullish long-term trend reversal in 2008 as the Leading Indicator pierced long-term support.

• Relationship suggests that CAD will not register sustained gains until Leading Indicator begins to stabilize.

Equity markets a key variable in helping to explain the directional bias in USD/CAD. Investors using equities as proxy for risk aversion; affects procyclical nature of CAD.

• Investment themes driving the CAD have evolved since 2005.

• “Petro-currency” theme was a catalyst for CAD strength in 2005.

• The role of China and base metals came to the forefront in 2006.

• Huge thematic shift took place in H2 2008.

• Crude oil correlation became less significant, while the role of equity markets gained prominence.

• Risk aversion theme using equities as a proxy.

• The CAD has been moving in lock-step with equities for the last 7 years.

• Periods of equity market strength serve as a positive for the CAD and vice-versa.

• An offshoot of the procyclical nature of CAD.

Crude oil is having a reduced impact on the directional bias in USD/CAD

• USD/CAD also has a negative correlation with crude oil.

• Note how USD/CAD broke higher in 2008 –just as crude oil broke lower.

• Correlation has declined since late 2008 though.

2-year U.S.-CAN swap spreads should also be considered for USD/CAD price direction

• Aside from equity and commodity markets, interest rates also have an impact on USD/CAD.

• Note that 2-year U.S.-CAN swap spreads have a very high correlation with USD/CAD.

Uptrend in 2-year U.S.-CAN swap spreads is a bullish factor for USD/CAD

• Ascending channel pattern guiding 2-year U.S.-CAN swap spreads higher.

• Uptrend and high correlation coefficient present a bullish factor for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD: Key Daily Resistance Level at 1.3017

• USD/CAD has been trapped in a 1.1800-1.3000 trading range this year.

• Note that prices have failed to pierce key resistance at 1.3017 despite four attempts since October 2008.

• Presents a tough hurdle for USD/CAD to overcome.

• Recent break below an ascending triangle base at 1.2268 has imparted a downside medium-term bias.

• Close below initial support at 1.2030 would highlight a key double bottom at 1.1826 in this regard.

• Break below the 1.1826 level would be significant and project additional losses toward 1.1661, followed by 1.1477.

• Must register a daily close above 1.3017 in order to generate new upward price momentum.

USD/CAD: Long-Term Corrective Phase Losing Momentum

• USD/CAD easily attained price targets at 1.0850 and 1.1000 in very short order.

• Prices are now struggling to sustain moves above the 1.3000 level.

• The monthly studies are beginning to peak from overbought levels.

• Suggests that Fibonacci retracement zone between 1.2623 and 1.3464 should delineate a possible top-building process.

• Resistance at 1.3017 and 1.3464 expected to attract selling interest in this regard.

• Monthly close below support at 1.1783 would enhance the top-building thesis, highlighting 1.1477 thereafter.

• Note that prices will have to pierce the trendline at 1.1007 for a full-blown bearish trend reversal.

• The new targets are located at 1.1800 and 1.1500.

USD/CAD – Hedging Strategies for H2 2009

Key Themes:

• Major topping pattern/process may be underway near the 1.3000 region

• However, anticipated selloff in equities in H2 2009 may impede asustained CAD rally

• Mixed variables point to a 1.1500-1.3000 trading range

Buyers of USD/CAD

• Use pullbacks to support levels at 1.2030, 1.1783 and 1.1477 as a buying opportunity

• Reduce exposure on a break above key resistance at 1.3017 (stop loss level)

• Monitor equity markets and swap spreads for directional bias and possible trend changes

Sellers of USD/CAD

• Use rallies to resistance at 1.2449, 1.2717 and 1.3017 as a selling opportunity

• Reduce exposure on a break below support at 1.1477 (stop loss level)

• Establishment of a potential top near 1.3000 drives hedging behaviour