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Fibonacci retracements represent mathematical, as opposed to visual, symmetry. Here, we take a look at how they really function.

Fibonacci retracements are derived from the ratios generated by the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55 …), in which each number is the sum of the preceding two numbers. Carried out to infinity and beyond, as Buzz Lightyear would say, the key ratios between alternating numbers come down to38.2 percent and 61.8 percent. The other key retracement levels are 23.6 percent (0.382 x 0.618) and 76.4 percent (1-0.236). These retracement levels are used by most technically inclined traders, but especially by devotees of the Elliott wave principle. The bottom line is that the market attaches a great deal of importance to Fibonacci retracements, and they usually offer significant support and resistance during price corrections, or retracements of larger directional moves.

Use Fibonacci retracements to identify additional sources of support and resistance after significant directional moves.

The graph shows a relatively sizeable move higher on a daily USD/CHF chart. The Fibonacci retracements are drawn using the Fibonacci tool of the charting system, beginning at the low of the move up and ending at the high for the entire move. As the price begins to top out, longs start taking profit and send prices lower. But alert traders are looking to buy on pullbacks to the key Fibonacci levels, first appearing at the 38.2 percent level, which manages to contain the correction for several days. But when prices break decisively below the 38.2 percent level, the theory is that they’ll next go to the 61.8 percent level. Sometimes the 50 percent level provides some support, but it’s not really a Fibonacci level and more of an arbitrary one-half measurement. The 61.8 percent retracement level also provides support for several days, triggering a fresh attempt higher that ultimately fails. When the 61.8 percent level is broken, the theory is that the price retracement will next target a 100 percent retracement, but intervening support sometimes develops at the 76.4 percent level.

The 76.4 percent mark is sort of the forgotten Fibonacci level, but it’s often the key turning point in more volatile currency pairs, like USD/CHF and GBP/USD. Just when you think that the 61.8 percent level failed, and it looks like the market is going for a 100 percent retracement, it pulls up short at 76.4 percent, confounding both the buyers at the 61.8 percent level, who’ve been stopped out now, and the sellers on the break of the 61.8 percent level, who are now stopping out on the bounce from 76.4 percent.

Fibonacci retracements can be drawn for almost any discernible price movement, but their significance is closely related to the size of the main directional move. The larger the primary directional price move, the more significance the support or resistance from the Fibonacci retracements will be. Generally speaking, don’t get caught up calculating retracements of moves of less than 200 points. Instead, focus on daily charts to spot the most significant price moves, and calculate the potential retracements based on them.

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