Forex Investment and Currency Trading

US dollar weakness
The single most important contributor to AUD strength will be a weaker US economy than is currently priced by the currency and interest rate markets. It is forecasted the ongoing weakness in the US economy as house prices continue to fall; employment contracts sharply; gas and food prices remain high and consumer spending [...]

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USD approaching a top
Over the past month there has been biased towards USD strength as a disconnect formed between fixed interest and FX markets. This process has just about run its course. A Fed pause is now fully discounted into year’s end and a hike is priced in early next year. It’s diffi cult to [...]

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NZ cash rates are a long way above real neutral

Reflecting increasing downside risk to activity stemming from a much weaker housing market, tighter credit conditions, and a deteriorating global growth backdrop, market brought forward the first rate cut to Q4 2008 from Q1 2009. An extra 50bp of easing next year is also expected, taking [...]

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