Forex Investment and Currency Trading

Over the weekend and into yesterday the FX market dealt with the bone-chilling stories about EURUSD nearly blowing down the 1.60 door, USDJPY below 100 (first since 1995), and USDCHF at parity (first time ever). But, by mid-day yesterday, the market’s seemed soothed in anticipation of today’s FOMC meeting.  Now one-week EURUSD and USDJPY implied vols are only 15% and 21%, respectively.  Now, everyone is waiting for the Fed.  Some people think that they will go a whole percentage point today (that’s 100bps to the layman).  But some only expect 50bps (a number that previously seemed huge).  Depending on what happens, we could see a [...]

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Current account balance (Survey: -183.8BN, Actual: -172.9 BN)
Empire Manufacturing (Survey: -7.4, Actual: -22.2)
Net Long Term TIC Flows (Survey: $60.0BN, $62.0BN)
Industrial Production (Survey: -0.1%, -0.5%)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Survey: 20)
Upcoming Economic releases: FOMC Rate Decision, PPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits
US data today was mixed:  TIC data as expected at +$62 bio, with a record net purchases of $36 bio of US Treasuries; industrial production -.5% on a big fall in utility production though smaller fall in manufacturing; Q4 current account narrowed $4.5 bio and is expected to continue to improve on slowing US demand and the declining trade value of the [...]

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