Forex Investment and Currency Trading

US Markets Today:  Core PCE inflation year-over-year fell to 2.0% in February, helped by revisions to prior data, moderating fears that the Fed is erring in easing policy and risking sharply higher inflation. Nominal consumer spending advanced 0.1% in February, but spending was flat in real terms, suggesting slow real GDP growth in Q1. Personal income rose an above consensus 0.5% due to both a calendar quirk and the BEA’s aggressive assumption that “large bonus payments” added $15bn to February personal income. In its March final reading, University of Michigan Sentiment fell to 69.5, the lowest level in over 16 years. [...]

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Global equity was up overnight as the market expects the biggest cut in more than two decades will happen today in the US. Nikkei was up 1.5% and Hang Seng was up 1.4%.EUR hit a high of 1.5840 overnight as ECB hinted that it will accept the EUR’s surge against the USD to help rein in inflation.The USDJPY was fairly range-bound as verbal intervention talk was still in the air from the Japan front. The JPY is currently at 97.40.The GBP hit a daily high after UK CPI came in as expected, which decrease the chance of near term rate [...]

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Current account balance (Survey: -183.8BN, Actual: -172.9 BN)
Empire Manufacturing (Survey: -7.4, Actual: -22.2)
Net Long Term TIC Flows (Survey: $60.0BN, $62.0BN)
Industrial Production (Survey: -0.1%, -0.5%)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Survey: 20)
Upcoming Economic releases: FOMC Rate Decision, PPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits
US data today was mixed:  TIC data as expected at +$62 bio, with a record net purchases of $36 bio of US Treasuries; industrial production -.5% on a big fall in utility production though smaller fall in manufacturing; Q4 current account narrowed $4.5 bio and is expected to continue to improve on slowing US demand and the declining trade value of the [...]

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FED adds more liquidity - $12 billion with overnight repos.  This adds effectively $9 billion as there was $4.5 billion maturing.  Fed funds’ weighted average was 3 percent yesterday, after trading between 0.1 percent and 3 3/4 percent, according to the central bank. In repos, the Fed buys U.S. Treasury, mortgage-backed and so called agency debt from the primary dealers for a set period, temporarily raising the amount of money available in the banking system. At maturity, the securities are returned to the dealers and the cash to the Fed.
US President Bush: US in “challenging” economic times, but “on top [...]

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