EUR GBP
The appearance of bearish divergences on the daily/weekly momentum studies (e.g. 9 period smoothed RSI), coupled with the heavily overbought readings apparent on the monthly studies suggest that intermonth risk is shifting to the downside. More specifically, a move back below the .7790 level (76.4% retracement of the 1995 - 2000 decline) on a monthly close basis, would suggest that price is entering a retracement phase. A subsequent failure of the more significant .7640 support (projected channel base and minimum 23.6% retracement of the January 2007 - March 2008 advance) would confirm the major high at .7980 and provoke [...]
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Tags: EURO
EUR USD - Price is currently locked within a relatively broad/choppy 1.5350 - 1.5900 interweek trading range. Longer term direction will be dictated by the correct interpretation of the current price action.
The first (favoured) interpretation is one of topping behaviour, prior to primary uptrend reversal. Factors which support this view are the recent upside acceleration (potential blow-off trend ending phase) of the primary uptrend, on approach to the 1.6045/1.6365 target zone (Fibonacci projection off the December 2007 reaction low and projected multi-year channel top), with the subsequent choppy price action symptomatic of sharp changes of sentiment (market participants reluctant to [...]
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Tags: EUR/USD
