Forex Investment and Currency Trading

EUR/USD expected to fall to 1.20/1.25 in the first half of 2009, while GBP/USD is expected to test 1.40. The ECB and the BoE will cut rates further, with the ECB having the most work to do.
Both EUR and GBP will strengthen against the USD in 2009 H2 but neither currency is likely to re-visit its highs against the USD from earlier this year. Look to sell EUR/ GBP in Q2 of next year, as GBP should benefit more from global reflation and lower risk aversion across global markets.

FX Strategy - Sell EUR/USD to open the new year, looking for a move [...]

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There is usually a fair amount of discussion in advance of G7 finance minister meetings about major outcomes that could be announced at such gatherings. While there have been notable exceptions – particularly the Dubai G7 gathering in September 2003 – for the most part the volume of speculation usually exceeds the concrete outcomes by a meaningful multiple. It appears that will be the case later this week.
A number of issues have interested market participants in recent weeks. The fall in the USD back toward record lows in late March rekindled talk of potential intervention. However,the US position is likely [...]

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EUR USD - Price is currently locked within a relatively broad/choppy 1.5350 - 1.5900 interweek trading range. Longer term direction will be dictated by the correct interpretation of the current price action.
The first (favoured) interpretation is one of topping behaviour, prior to primary uptrend reversal. Factors which support this view are the recent upside acceleration (potential blow-off trend ending phase) of the primary uptrend, on approach to the 1.6045/1.6365 target zone (Fibonacci projection off the December 2007 reaction low and projected multi-year channel top), with the subsequent choppy price action symptomatic of sharp changes of sentiment (market participants reluctant to [...]

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FX Update
Initial Jobless Claims (Survey: 366, Actual: 407)
Continuing Claims (Survey: 2860, Actual: 2937)
ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Survey: 48.5)
Upcoming Data releases: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment
USD
The broad USD has staged a recovery over the course of the past few trading sessions. The DXY USD index has climbed 1.7% since the beginning of trading on Monday. Today’s jobless claims print came in well above consensus but only had a muted effect on FX markets. The market will remain keenly focused on tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report as a better indication of the stat of the US labor market.
EUR/USD
The Euro has come off significantly this morning [...]

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