Forex Investment and Currency Trading

USDJPY: While the pair did not close above the double bottom neckline at 94.65 yesterday, it has clearly continued to rally and the major level that is under threat now is 95.77 - a significant low from Mar ‘08 which converges with trend resistance from the highs throughout Aug & Sept ‘08. A firm rally through there would add to the bullish bias and open the way for 97.44 and eventually the 200 dma at 100.33.
Interesting to note that many are still talking about the relationship between the JPY and equities - that the JPY should be stronger as equities [...]

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GBPJPY…..another movie sequel (The movie in question being Halloween II although Flipper II is also a valid choice.)

 The chart above shows the amazing similarity to the recent price action in GBPJPY and that seen between late August and early November as we hit the top of the 11-month channel.

“The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.”
(FOMC statement on 31 October [...]

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Overall: Some signs of better USD performance yesterday as yields and Equities headed higher.Up move in yields still bears watching while the Equity markets are approaching good resistance levels. the bias is retained that the corrective move lower in commodities has not yet run its course.
Equities: Important resistance is now close by on U.S. markets. Elsewhere the Sensex remains under pressure
FX: EURUSD holds short-term support although bias remained for lower levels. GBPCHF and G10CHF bounce off the 76.4% pullback level. USDJPY breaks back through the major pivots.
Fixed Income: U.S. 2-year yield testing major resistance. Could this be a pivotal week [...]

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Nothing too exciting with mostly month, quarter, fiscal year end activity dominating market movement. Euro-zone inflation jumped to record highs, IP in Japan continued to fall taking the Nikkei with it down 2.3% on close of Japanese fiscal year.

JPY  - It was all about the fixing. Closed soft in New York on Friday, continuing into the Sydney open, dipping below 98.85 before Japanese fixing demand drove it 140 points to print 100.16. Exporters were at the ready once again above 100 and things are now just a tiny bit higher than where we left them on Friday. Topside offers are expected to remain in place although [...]

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